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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."